Research

How the desk works

Three public rules read Polymarket prices. They publish a structured call — or stay silent. This page is the methodology. The engines live in the open repo.

Open GitHub

Six steps

Data in. Call out.

Markets

Open Polymarket questions come in as a tape: name, id, and a YES-token price series.

Features

Each series is reduced to a few numbers: start, last, range, momentum, and two short windows.

Rules

Three independent engines read those numbers. They either fire a YES/NO call or stay silent.

Signal

A fired rule becomes a structured object: market, side, confidence, rationale, and free/paid tier.

Desk

The Telegram desk is an AI chat. It narrates the time machine — it does not dump a signal list.

Score

The backtest engine marks a 1-share YES/NO path with take-profit, stop, hold limit, hit rate, and drawdown.

Why these rules

Prices are beliefs. Moves have structure.

Implied prob

A YES token at 0.64 means the market is pricing a 64% chance. That is the input — not volume, not news text, not a black box score.

Continuation

Informed flow and attention often arrive in bursts. If the tape already moved, momentum and event-drift assume the next print is more likely to keep going than to instantly fade.

Stretch fade

When a contract swings far from 50¢ without resolving, positioning can get crowded. Mean-revert fades that stretch — the other side of the same tape.

The three engines

Independent. Testable. Silent when unsure.

Three independent engines read the same tape. A market can produce zero, one, or several calls. If the move is unclear, they stay silent.

momentum-v1

If YES implied already moved, follow that direction.

YES implied probability · research example

mean-revert-v1

After a wide swing that stretches away from 50¢, fade the extension back toward fair.

YES implied probability · research example

event-drift-v1

Early window and recent window must move the same way. One spike is not enough.

YES implied probability · research example

Four sources, one object

Same Signal. Different origin.

Model

Deterministic rules over implied-probability bars. No neural net. Same engines the public repo documents.

AI

Free open-source chat (GPT-OSS) that only speaks from the time-machine JSON. No paid API key required.

Desk

A human admin publishes a free or paid call from Telegram or the web console.

Community

Anyone can submit. Nothing hits the tape until a moderator approves it.

Backtest

Score the call. Do not pretend it is a fill.

Enter the first bar on or after the signal time. Position is 1 share.
YES PnL = exit − entry. NO PnL = entry − exit.
Exit at take-profit (YES ≥ 90¢ / NO ≤ 10¢), stop (mirrored), 24-bar hold, or series end.
Hit rate uses non-overlapping replica windows on the same series — not a single lucky fill.
Max drawdown is peak-to-trough on the mark-to-market path.
No fees. No slippage. Research metric, not an execution promise.

Run the engine →

Founder

Willie

Built Cypherpunk as a Telegram-first Polymarket research desk. The product is the tape. The methodology is public so you can see why a call fired.

@williemdoe on X →